Why Millennials Have No Right to Complain     Millennials have access to investing information, the best financial blogs, we could only have dreamed about! In 1992 I took a gap year from University. I traveled all over Europe and the Middle East while makin...

2 Reasons Why the Odds are Stacked Against the Fed     We continue to hew to our favorite scenario of a market downturn in the intermediate future …   In 2 Painstaking Reasons the Market can expect a Midlife Crisis we show how total business sales have...

2 Painstaking Reasons the Market can expect a Midlife Crisis     Could the markets be facing a stock market crisis? In our last market note (How to Unleash a Dragon) we commented that a rally in March was expected given the degree of selling in January and ...

Bear Market Investing Strategies to Unleash a Dragon   Read about how our strategy shifted to one of capital preservation using bear market investing strategies versus capital growth. Mounting macro headwinds that, in our estimation, shifted probabilities toward...

How I found Gold in White Water Rapids   Are we in a Gold Stock Bull Market? The question of Gold as an investment intrigues me! Nobody it seems is ambivalent to the shiny yellow metal. Either you Hate it! In which case you may be in the camp of a barbarous reli...

Why I Love Christmas In My Bathing Suit     North Bondi surf-club life-savers put up their Christmas decorations at Bondi Beach – a private equity real estate haven … I lived in the suburb of Bondi Beach, Sydney Australia in the early O’s. What a gorg...

How to Find Killer Stocks Amongst the Carnage We were running Opium between seven Asian Ports in our stock market game and business was GOOD! Hong Kong was our home base, Shanghai, Nagasaki, Saigon, Manila, Singapore, and Batavia (Batavia is the old Dutch name for pr...

Mr. Market Reveals His Secrets In 2015     What the difference between stocks and bonds are telling us about the economy in 2015? “Luminous beings are we…not this crude matter.” – Yoda   Just how rare is it for both stocks and bonds to be down on...

6th Grade Lessons for Predicting Markets     Disregarding the fact that we were gambling without adult supervision at age 12, we were learning the art of PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT.   A few years ago I had the good fortune of lunching with Jack Shwager of ...

A Painstaking Move for 30-Yr Interest Rates Ahead   Higher interest rates may be ahead still within the context of a secular bull market in bonds. “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recov...